Introduction & Disclaimers
The rapid proliferation of online polling data has created a fragmented and often opaque information environment in which unrepresentative, methodologically weak, or even misleading “polls” circulate widely. This poses significant risks for public understanding and political analysis, as such data are frequently interpreted as credible measures of public opinion. In some contexts, particularly where institutional safeguards are weaker, close ties between governments and polling organisations further raise concerns about the intentional manipulation of survey results in favour of incumbents. Against this backdrop, there is a clear need for greater transparency regarding who produces polling data and under what methodological conditions.
This project introduces Europe Elects: Truth in Polling, a publicly accessible database that systematically maps and profiles organisations across Europe that publish voting intention data. The database focuses on actors that explicitly or implicitly claim to produce methodologically sound, empirically grounded, and statistically robust polling. By compiling and standardizing information on these organisations, the project seeks to enhance transparency in the European polling landscape and provide researchers, journalists, and the public with a clearer understanding of who produces electoral data and under what conditions.
WARNING: Importantly, the database does not assume that all listed organisations meet professional polling standards. Instead, it documents variation in methodological practices and highlights cases where organisations diverge from commonly accepted industry norms, such as representative sampling or appropriate statistical inference. Without issuing categorical judgments, the project enables users to critically assess the credibility of different data providers.
WARNING: The project also accounts for structural constraints on polling accuracy, particularly in authoritarian regimes, where even technically rigorous surveys may fail to capture genuine public opinion due to respondent self-censorship.
Overall, the initiative seeks to counter misinformation, promote accountability, and foster dialogue between polling organisations and data users. By offering a comprehensive and comparative overview of pollsters in Europe, it contributes to improving the reliability and interpretation of electoral data in both academic research and public discourse.
A detailed methodology and a summary of findings can be found here.
The data tables can be downloaded here.
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Legal Disclaimer, Rights, Preferred Citation (click to expand)
The findings, interpretations and conclusions in this volume do not necessarily reflect the view of Europe Elects UG (haftungsbeschränkt). Europe Elects UG (haftungsbeschränkt) does not guarantee the accuracy of data included in this work. Europe Elects UG (haftungsbeschränkt) bears no responsibility for oversights, mistakes or omissions.
This research was funded by the European Media and Information Fund. The sole responsibility for any content supported by the European Media and Information Fund lies with the author(s), and it may not necessarily reflect the positions of the EMIF and the Fund Partners, the Calouste Gulbenkian Foundation and the European University Institute. The target audiences of the project are: 1. European citizens 2. Journalists and media professionals 3. Policymakers and government officials 4. Researchers and academics.
The sale or commercial use of all media published by Europe Elects UG (haftungsbeschränkt) is prohibited without the written consent of Europe Elects UG (haftungsbeschränkt).
© This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution–NonCommercial ShareAlike 2.5 Licence.
Preferred citation: Europe Elects. (2024). Europe Elects: Truth in Polling. Europe Elects. https://europeelects.eu/europe-elects-truth-in-polling/.
Database
Identity Markers (Part I)
Identity Markers (Part II)
Qualitative Assessment
Quantitative Assessment
Miscellaneous Information
Partners and Funders
The sole responsibility for any content supported by the European Media and Information Fund lies with the author(s) and it may not necessarily reflect the positions of the EMIF and the Fund Partners, the Calouste Gulbenkian Foundation and the European University Institute.