About the Project
Europe Elects: Truth in Polling (EETIP) is a publicly available database of pollsters in each European country, assessing essential information related to their activities. With this project, we aim to promote transparency in the polling industry,
as well as deepen dialogue with political pollsters in countries of the European Political Community with the goal of reviewing their work collaboratively with them.
The target audiences of the project are:
1. European citizens
2. Journalists and media professionals
3. Policymakers and government officials
4. Researchers and academics
Methodology
The information displayed below is based on research conducted by our team members, following consultations with external experts and the pollsters themselves. New assessments are scheduled to be released on a monthly basis. If you are interested in contributing or believe that certain parts of our research should be additionally looked into, we encourage you to contact us via our email address: [email protected].
Accuracy:
In the “Accuracy” section, we calculate the absolute difference between the polling results and the actual election results.
Selection of parties: the analysis focuses exclusively on the polling data related to political parties that obtained parliamentary representation following a given election. Parties which failed to obtain parliamentary representation following the election are not taken into account for standardisation reasons. Omission of a party which obtained parliamentary representation following a given election is considered a polling error, proportional to the party’s election result.
Selection of polls: if no poll was conducted shortly before the last national parliament election, other elections were used as reference points.
Precision: the total error calculations adhere strictly to the number of decimal places provided by the pollster in their published results.
Considerations: in cases of countries where the legitimacy of the electoral system is being questioned, based on evaluations such as the Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) project, the accuracy of polling data is not being assessed. This decision is made in acknowledgement that electoral data in such contexts may not reliably reflect genuine voter preferences.
Membership:
In our assessment of pollsters, the “Membership” column in the spreadsheet indicates whether a given pollster is affiliated with an organisation that sets professional standards and guidelines for market and opinion research, such as ESOMAR (European Society for Opinion and Marketing Research), or other equivalent national organizations.
Pollsters and Polling Data
We will cover more countries soon.
Partners and Funders
The sole responsibility for any content supported by the European Media and Information Fund lies with the author(s) and it may not necessarily reflect the positions of the EMIF and the Fund Partners, the Calouste Gulbenkian Foundation and the European University Institute.