//European Elections, Day 3: Maltese Labour Party predicted to obtain majority

European Elections, Day 3: Maltese Labour Party predicted to obtain majority

Forty-one candidates are contesting the European Parliament elections in Malta. Only 6 seats are available, and these are expected to be won by the two major political parties only. From the latest polls, it has been predicted that the Labour Party (S&D) would win 4 seats, while the Nationalists Party (EPP) would win 2 seats.

In the last few decades, two political parties dominated Malta at local, national and European level. There are a number of small parties; however, their percentage share in Malta has always remained at low levels. Traditionally, the European Parliament (EP) elections were fertile land for small parties in Malta. In fact, in the last two EP elections, that percentage share varied between 4 and 7%. When considering the national context, such percentages are higher when compared with Malta’s General Election results. Latest surveys predicted a similar share for the smaller parties. Surveys also showed that ‘Alternattiva Demokratika’ (Green Party) and ‘Imperium Europa’ are the strongest from the small parties.

The final turnout during the last 2 EP elections in Malta varied between 74% – 79%. It is being predicted that this time around the final turnout will be slightly lower. Surveys all showed that there is a substantial proportion of Nationalists party supporters who are not interested enough to vote this time around. This will give further advantage to the Labour Party in Malta to increase its lead from the Nationalist party.

Several surveys published in Malta predict that the Labour Party’s lead varies between 15-20%. In the Maltese context, such a lead is substantial – a lead which the country never experienced during these last decades. However, the Labour Party already had a strong majority during the two last general elections. The latest survey published by Sagalytics (Malta) predicted that the Labour Party will mass around 57% of the votes, the Nationalists party will obtain around 37% of the total percentage share and the other parties in total shall obtain around 6%.

These percentages are consistent with most of the polls published in Malta during the last 2 years. Hence, there is a consistent trend. With such a wide gap between the two parties, the Labour Party is predicted to win 4 seats and the Nationalists party 2 seats. We are almost certain that the smaller parties will not win any seats.

(Edited by Euan Healey)

Vincent covers polls and elections in Malta for Europe Elects. He earned a PhD in Mathematics (Statistics) at the University of Stirling and is currently a lecturer at the University of Malta. He joined Europe Elects in 2019.