Romania: The Five Contenders Battling for the Presidency

Romania is less than a week away from the first round of presidential elections. The political stage is set for a high-stakes battle among key contenders vying for the country’s top office. Although Romania is a semi-presidential republic, these elections are widely regarded by the public as the most important ones in the country.

All eligible candidates participate in the first round of the presidential elections, held 24 November. If no one receives over 50% of vote in the first round—as it looks like—the two most voted candidates proceed to a run-off held 8 December. The most voted candidate becomes the president of Romania for the next five years.

Five prominent figures dominate the race: Marcel Ciolacu, George Simion, Mircea Geoană, Elena Lasconi, and Nicolae Ciucă. Each candidate represents distinct political currents and visions for Romania’s future, making this one of the most competitive elections in the recent history of Romania.

At the heart of this year’s election lies a pivotal question: who will join frontrunner and current Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu in the anticipated second round? This uncertainty highlights the fragmented yet dynamic nature of Romania’s political landscape. Each candidate has its own view of how to deal with the different citizens’ issues and concerns about the future.

The most pressing issues for voters are the high cost of living and the war in Ukraine. The rapidly rising national deficit has sparked widespread debate over how each candidate plans to tackle the growing debt. On the war in Ukraine, most major candidates support continuing aid. However, George Simion stands out as the only main contender opposing further assistance to Ukraine. His stance resonates with his voters, many of whom blame the war for high prices and inflation and they hope the economic situation will get better if the war ends.

The Main Five Contenders

Marcel Ciolacu (PSD-S&D)

As leader of the Social Democratic Party (PSD) and current Prime Minister, Marcel Ciolacu is the frontrunner. He promotes economic stability and social welfare but faces criticism for PSD’s controversial history, particularly regarding rule of law issues and corruption scandals that plagued the party over the past decade, as well as his poor economic performance as Prime Minister.

George Simion (AUR-ECR)

The populist leader of AUR party of the national-conservative ECR eurogroup, George Simion, thrives on nationalist rhetoric and anti-establishment sentiment. His appeal lies with disillusioned voters seeking radical change. Polls consistently place him as the strongest contender to secure second place.

Elena Lasconi (USR-RE)

A liberal reformist, Elena Lasconi leads the Save Romania Union (USR). Known for her anti-corruption stance and modernising vision, she appeals primarily to urban and younger voters. However, USR’s limited reach in rural areas remains a challenge. Her polling numbers are stable, keeping her within striking distance of the second round. Lasconi promises lower taxes and to reduce the state apparatus to make the economy more competitive.

Mircea Geoană (Independent)

Former NATO Deputy Secretary General Mircea Geoană focuses on leveraging his international experience and strategic expertise. His campaign appeals to moderates and pro-European voters, but his past ties to PSD and lack of a strong domestic political base have weakened his standing. Once a leading candidate, his support has significantly declined in recent weeks.

Nicolae Ciucă (PNL-EPP)

Nicolae Ciucă—leader of the centre-right National Liberal Party (PNL), former Prime Minister and retired general—emphasises stability and experience. While his campaign highlights security and continuity, he has struggled to convince the public of his capabilities. Despite this, his polling numbers suggest he remains a strong contender for the second round. Ciucă has said he would protect the private sector and would not increase taxes.

The Fight for the Second Round

While Ciolacu seems secure in advancing to the second round, the race for the second spot among Simion, Lasconi, Geoană, and Ciucă remains fierce and is likely to be decided by undecided voters.

An important aspect of this year’s elections is their impact on the parliamentary elections, scheduled just one week after the first round of the presidential vote. The presidential race’s outcome will significantly influence the parliamentary elections, raising the stakes for all political parties. In recent years, the second-round battle has typically been between a centre-left PSD candidate and one from centre-right PNL. However, if Ciucă fails to reach the second round and Lasconi manages to advance, it could trigger an exodus of voters from PNL to USR in the parliamentary elections, potentially positioning USR as the second-largest party in the national parliament.

According to Europe Elects’ poll aggregator average, polls show Simion, Lasconi, and Ciucă all neck-and-neck, with differences falling within the margin of error, meaning any of them could ultimately face Ciolacu in the second round. A tense final stretch of the campaign week is expected ahead of the Sunday election. With margins so tight, even a rather minor movement in support could mean life and death when pursuing the spot in the run-off in December.