The country faces its first parliamentary election since Russia’s full-scale invasion of neighbouring Ukraine, and the first election since a narrowly decided referendum, which enshrined Moldova’s wish for EU membership. Will voters choose to keep heading towards Europe?
Moldovan citizens will soon head to the polls to elect a new government this coming Sunday, 28 September.
Four political forces — the reformist Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS-EPP) of incumbent President Maia Sandu, the Patriotic Electoral Bloc (BEP-LEFT) led by former president Igor Dodon (PSRM~LEFT), the Alternative Electoral Bloc (BEA~S&D) of Chișinău mayor Ion Ceban (MAN~S&D), and Our Party (PN-*), founded by former Bălți mayor Renato Usatîi — are likely to enter the new legislature.
With much of the Moldovan electorate holding firm pro- and anti-European stances, and thus unlikely to shift towards PAS from the opposition or vice versa, the electoral battle will be fought over undecided voters, who are concentrated particularly in rural areas.
For these Moldovans, the EU remains attractive in principle, but less tangible in everyday life. For many of them, the promise of EU integration is not just a geopolitical matter, but one that affects their daily lives. It’s about whether their salaries rise, whether they have better opportunities, and whether public services improve.
Accession to the EU would likely open doors to new infrastructure investments and expand access to EU funds. However, a government sceptical of this path could slow or even reverse the progress the country has made in its accession bid, leaving rural regions in particular to continue struggling with economic stagnation and migration.
The current government has attempted to push through anti-corruption and judicial reforms central to its agenda, aiming to break the influence of powerful business and political interests, and is seen by many as the path to building a more transparent, rules-based system.
Political opponents have instead contended that the measures are unevenly applied. They say that the government’s reforms risk being used against rivals and raise questions about whether these reforms can deliver lasting change.
The war in neighbouring Ukraine has also sharpened concerns about Moldova’s vulnerability. Despite its constitutional neutrality, the country has faced a range of destabilisation attempts, including energy blackmail, disinformation campaigns, and plots to incite unrest. A pro-European government would likely strengthen resilience against Russian hybrid tactics, while a more Russia-friendly coalition could weaken that resolve.
For Moldovans, the choice in these elections is not only about governance but about how safe their country will be in an increasingly unstable region. A future government will have to decide how much to deepen cooperation with Western partners while maintaining Moldova’s constitutional neutrality — a balance that remains politically sensitive.
Another major concern is foreign interference, especially from Russia. Moldovan authorities have already raised alarms about disinformation campaigns, cyberattacks, and attempts to sway the election through fake news and social media manipulation. These efforts are designed not only to weaken pro-European forces but also to deepen divisions among Moldovan voters, particularly in regions of the country and areas of society where trust in institutions is fragile.
However, the suspicions of interference would not be limited to the information space. According to Moldovan authorities, attempts are being made to buy votes in large enough quantities to alter the election results.
The implications go far beyond Moldova’s borders. This election is a geopolitical test of whether Brussels or Moscow will wield greater influence in Eastern Europe. For many observers, these parliamentary elections are more than a contest between parties – they are, in effect, a(nother) referendum on Moldova’s direction.
A victory for pro-EU forces would strengthen Moldova’s candidacy for membership and signal that the EU’s enlargement project retains momentum, even in societies where Russian ties run deep. A stronger showing by the opposition, meanwhile, may signal a pivot, or at least a pause, on the trajectory of EU integration, handing Moscow an opening to reassert itself in a strategically vulnerable country on Ukraine’s border.
