The next elections to the European Parliament will be held in 2024. This page projects how the EU Parliament would look like if there was an election held in month X.
European Parliament Seat Projection
How would the European Parliament look like, if there was a vote tomorrow?
How would the popular vote look like, if there was a European election tomorrow?
In each constituency Europe Elects considers polls published with a sample size in the previous 90 days, using only the latest poll published by each firm. Polls asking directly about the European Election are preferred, but since those are rare and national polls are plentiful, the latter are often used. Wherever no polls are available, as in the case of the German-speaking community in Belgium, the 2014 election results are used. Polls with a sample size of <501 are ignored. Europe Elects subject matter experts disregard or include certain pollsters based on external evidence (such as new paper articles) relating to credibility. In France, whenever no recent national parliamentary polls are available, we use an average of the Presidential polls and project the value to the national party affiliated with the respective candidate.
National polls are projected onto European Parliament constituencies using multiplicative uniform regional swing, where the proportional swing is calculated and multiplied by the last constituency result. For example, a party that won 22% of the national vote and 15% in a certain constituency in 2019 and is now polling at 24% nationally would have their previous local 15% multiplied by 24/22 = 1.1, modelling a 2019 result in the constituency of 16.5%. For new parties, their poll numbers are assumed to be uniform in all constituencies.
The constituency results are calculated probabilistically for each poll included in the projection using the correct local electoral law, a factor that is unique to the Europe Elects model, using weighted Monte Carlo simulations, essentially simulating the election many times over and over again to achieve the probability distribution of the results. The results for each constituency are combined by averaging the probability mass functions (those graphs above that look like a bell curve) calculated for each poll.
These result are then combined into a single European result by convolving the probability mass functions of the parties in each European Parliament group, for example calculating for S&D the probability that the PD will get x number of seats plus Labour will get y seats plus Spanish PSOE will get z seats and so on for every party in S&D; the same is done for each group independently.
This method leaves us with separate bell curves each one of which we take the median result from as the predicted number of seats for the EP group. The sum of the medians will not add up to 751, one more step is required for that, but it will be close to it.
The reason for the medians not adding up to the total seats can be understood imagining 3 parties competing for a single seat in one constituency, each one having equal probability of winning. The probability mass function for each party will show it with a 1/3 probability of winning one seat and a 2/3 probability of netting 0 seats. The median result will therefore be 0 for all three, with a confidence interval of 0-1. The sum of the medians 0+0+0 = 0 not 1, yet the result is probabilistically correct.
The median result for each EP group is normalized to the total of 751, making up for all the cases like the one described above by distributing the missing seats proportionally.
The grouping of the parties in the European Parliament is done by the team members of Europe Elects. Parties already represented in the European Parliament are kept in their current group. For new parties or parties that aren’t represented yet, we keep a close eye on (and often communicate with) relevant national parties to assess which group in the European Parliament they will join. Hence, our projection is unique in that it aligns these new parties with the existing families, rather than as an amorphous “new parties” group.
Major changes in the methodology since 2014
(1) The right-wing ID group was de facto created in June 2015 as ENF. Back then, the ENF parties then separated from the Non-Inscrits in the European Parliament. In March 2019, ENF announced that it would transform with other EFDD and ECR parties into EAPN, which, at the beginning of the 2019-2024 legislative period, became the ID group in the EU Parliament.
(2) Until May 2017 the parties with no affiliation to any group in the European Parliament are labelled automatically as part of the Non-Inscrits group but are afterwards presented separately.
(3) Europe Elects allocates national parliament to European Parliament groups as soon as some sort of affiliation exists (details on what we describe as affiliation). For example, in April 2017 the French party REM was moved from Non-Inscrits to ALDE, which would become RE in the 2019-2024 legislative period.
(4) The United Kingdom was excluded from the projection from April 2017 until March 2019 and also after January 2020 based on the then-planned Brexit date.
(5) The months of Jul-14, Sep-14, Nov-14, Jan-15, Mar-15, Jun-15, Aug-15, May-17, Jun-17, Aug-17, Oct-17, Dec-17, and Feb-18 have been taken with kind permission from the seat projections on Manuel Müller’s blog “Der (europäische) Föderalist”. For more information visit www.foederalist.eu/europawahl-umfragen.
(6) The EFDD group ceased to exist in June 2019 (end of the 2014-2019 legislative period). The parties shifted into the NI group of did not get re-elected.