Europe Elects’ European Parliament projection, commissioned by Euractiv, offers an indication of how voters in the European Union would vote should there be an EU Parliament election today and how this outlook changes on a monthly basis.
The first projection of the new year, about four months before the European Parliament elections, shows a similar overall picture to the previous months, with a different trend.
The centre-right European People’s Party (EPP) remains the largest group overall with 180 seats, gaining one seat, their sixth gain in a row. The centre-left Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats (S&D) follows with 140 seats, down by two seats. Renew Europe (RE), the centrist-liberal group, suffered another loss of two seats, now on 82. In October, they were projected ten seats higher than they are now. With 402 out of 705 seats, the three parties that form an informal coalition in the European Parliament have an absolute majority.
The third largest group in the projection, Identity and Democracy (ID), has lost two seats this month to 91. This is their first loss after ten gains in a row. The other party on the right, the national-conservative European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR), also suffered a loss and is now down to 80 seats, one less than before.
On the left, the Greens/European Free Alliance (G/EFA) are predicted to win 51 seats, two more than last month, while the GUE/NGL (LEFT) is the biggest winner of the month, gaining six seats up to 42.
ThThe Non-Inscrits (NI) would have one seat less and are now at 49, and the parties not (yet) affiliated are expected to have five seats, also one less.
These figures show that, with a 95% confidence interval, the EPP would come first and the S&D second if an election were held this month. Third place is up for grabs for three groups: ID, RE and ECR are too close to call. Sixth place is also possible for three groups: G/EFA, NI and LEFT are projected at similar levels. The smallest group in the projection are the non-affiliated parties, which are currently not represented in the European Parliament.
The changes are driven by how national parties developed:
The main gains for LEFT come from two parties, one is the new German Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht – Für Vernunft und Gerechtigkeit that shows up for the first time in our projection with three seats. In addition, Italian Sinistra Italiana is expected to be represented again with two seats. Its partner in the AVS parliamentary group, Europa Verde from the G/EFA group, is also expected to return with three seats.
The last major change in Italy comes within the ECR group, where the governing Fratelli d’Italia is expected to lose three seats. The same group also includes Poland‘s Prawo i Sprawiedliwość, which is also expected to lose two seats.
The other major Polish party, EPP member Platforma Obywatelska, is predicted to win two more seats than last month. In the S&D group, the Hungarian member Demokratikus Koalíció is predicted to lose two seats.
All other national parties are expected to gain or lose no more than one seat.
The projection of the popular vote for January also brings interesting changes. The European People’s Party remains the largest group with 22.6%, a drop of 0.2 points compared to the previous month. The Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats is moving in the opposite direction and is now on 18.4%, an increase of half a point. Renew Europe suffered the biggest drop this month and now stands at 9.5% (−0.9), its lowest level in this election period. Together, the three groups of the informal coalition have reduced their share but still hold an absolute majority with 50.5%.
On the right of the political spectrum, both groups gain 0.2 percentage points: Identity and Democracy is now at 12.3%, its highest level since February 2020, and European Conservatives and Reformists is at 11.3%.
On the left, the Greens/European Free Alliance are down to 6.9% (−0.1), while the biggest gainer this month, also in the popular vote projection, is the GUE/NGL. With an increase of 1.3 percentage points, they reach 6.8%.
Non-inscrits saw a slight decrease this month to 5.9% (−0.3), those who have not (yet) joined a political group a bigger one, to now at 6.2% (−0.7).
Details of this methodology are explained on our European Parliament projection site, where you can also find a detailed overview and explanation of the methodology behind the monthly projection, including information on why there are sometimes different developments in the popular vote share and the seat projection.
Looking at the current composition of the European Parliament, three new MEPs have already replaced colleagues from their parties this year: Michael Kauch (FDP – RE) from Germany, Krzysztof Brejza (PO – EPP) from Poland and Guy Lavocat (RE – RE) from France.
The composition of the European Council has not changed this month, as a government has not yet been formed in the Netherlands.
Looking ahead to February, the second round of Finland‘s presidential election is scheduled for 11 February. All election results and details of upcoming elections can be found in our Election Calendar.
