EU Parliamentary Projection: Three-Way for Third and Sixth Place

Europe Elects’ European Parliament projection, commissioned by Euractiv, offers an indication of how voters in the European Union would vote should there be an EU Parliament election today and how this outlook changes on a monthly basis.

Three months until the EU elections: Ursula von der Leyen has announced her intention to run again for Commission President, the first top candidates have been announced, and more and more polls are being conducted that ask directly about voting intentions. A picture of the likely outcome of the election is emerging.

The centre-right European People’s Party (EPP) is clearly the largest group overall with 181 seats, gaining one seat, its seventh consecutive gain. The centre-left Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats (S&D) follows with 140 seats, and unchanged from last month. The centrist-liberal group Renew Europe (RE) is also predicted to win the same number of seats as in January, 82. With 403 out of 705 seats, the three parties that form an informal coalition in the European Parliament have a secure absolute majority of seats in our projection.

The third largest group in the projection, Identity and Democracy (ID), has 92 seats this month, one more than in January. The other party on the right, the national-conservative European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR), gains three seats and now has 83 seats.

On the left, the Greens/European Free Alliance (G/EFA) are predicted to win 49 seats, two fewer than last month, while The Left in the European Parliament – GUE/NGL (LEFT) is one of the biggest winners of the month, gaining another three seats to 45.

The Non-Inscrits (NI) would have five seats less than last month, now 44, and the parties not (yet) affiliated are expected to have four, also one less.

These figures show that, with a 95% confidence interval, the EPP would come first and the S&D second if an election were held this month. Third place is up for grabs for three groups: ID, ECR and RE are too close to call. Sixth place is also possible for three groups: G/EFA, LEFT and NI are projected at similar levels. The smallest group in the projection are the non-affiliated parties, which are currently not represented in the European Parliament.

The changes are driven by the development of national parties:

Behind the EPP’s small overall gain are changes in different directions in different countries: While German Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands is down by three seats this month, Romanian Partidul Național Liberal has increased by the same amount. The Dutch Christen-Democratisch Appèl is also projected to gain two seats compared to January.

In the S&D group the Hungarian member Demokratikus Koalíció picked up three seats this month, while both Romanian Partidul Social Democrat and Spanish Partido Socialista Obrero Español dropped two each.

Within the ID group French Rassemblement National has gained two seats and its alliance partner L’Avenir Français would also gain representation with the same number of seats. On the other hand Romanian Partidul S.O.S. România is not expected to win any seats this month. Furthermore, both the German Alternative for Deutschland and the Dutch Partij voor de Vrijheid are projected to win fewer seats than last month: The former by two seats and the latter by three.

The most important gains for the ECR group are due to the new affiliation of the French Reconquête, which is projected to win five seats. In addition to this, Italian Fratelli d’Italia are also projected to have two seats more than they did in January.

Also from Italy comes the only major change in RE group: Azione is not expected to get any seats this month, down from four in the month before.

There is also only one bigger change for the G/EFA, with Bündnis 90/Die Grünen predicted to have two fewer seats than in January.

German parties are also behind the gains in the LEFT group, with both Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht – Für Vernunft und Gerechtigkeit and Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz projected to gain two additional seats each.

All other national parties are expected to gain or lose no more than one seat.

The projection of the popular vote for February shows slightly different developments. The European People’s Party remains the largest group with 22.6%, the same as in the previous month. The Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats increased its share by half a point to 18.9%, its highest share since last September. Renew Europe is on 9.5%, unchanged from January. Together, the three groups of the informal coalition have increased their share and have an absolute majority with 51%.

On the right of the political spectrum, the European Conservatives and Reformists gained 0.4 percentage points to 11.7%, surpassing Identity and Democracy, which lost 0.7 percentage points to 11.6%.

On the left, the Greens/European Free Alliance rose by half a point to 7.4%, but still fell behind the LEFT, which reached 7.5% (+0.7).

Non-Inscrits fell this month to 5.2% (−0.7), as did those who have not (yet) joined a political group who now stand at 5.5% (−0.7).

Details of this methodology are explained on our European Parliament projection site, where you can also find a detailed overview and explanation of the methodology behind the monthly projection, including information on why there are sometimes different developments in the popular vote share and the seat projection.

Looking at the current composition of the European Parliament, three new MEPs have replaced colleagues from their parties in February: Niels Geuking (FAMILIE-EPP) from Germany, Henk Jan Ormel (CDA-EPP) from Netherlands and Linus Glanzelius (S-S&D) from Sweden.

The composition of the European Council has not changed this month, as a government has not yet been formed in the Netherlands.

Looking ahead to March, Portugal will hold national parliamentary elections on 10 March. All election results and details of upcoming elections can be found in our Election Calendar.