Europe Elects’ European Parliament projection, commissioned by Euractiv, offers an indication of how voters in the European Union would vote should there be an EU Parliament election today and how this outlook changes on a monthly basis.
The European elections are nearly half-a-year in the past and with the new commission in place, things slowly settle in. It is time to take a look at what changed in our projection compared to the election and to see if the new commission could count on the same majorities if there was an election today.
The largest group overall is—like in the election—the centre-right European People’s Party (EPP), which are projected at 183 seats, five less then they have at the moment. They are followed by the centre-left Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats (S&D), which are down by two seats compared to their actual seats, to 134. Renew Europe (RE), the centrist-liberal group that also supports the second von der Leyen commission are projected at 81 seats, up from the 77 they achieved in June. Together the three parties have 389 out of 720 seats in the projection, which can be compared to the 370 votes the College of Commissioners got in the vote in the European Parliament.
On the further right side of the political spectrum there is now one group more compared to before the election. The biggest one of them is Patriots for Europe (PfE), the successor of Identity and Democracy (ID). They are at the moment projected at 100 seats and have the biggest gain since June of all groups, a plus of 16 seats. The national-conservative European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR)—that are partially also supporting the new Commission—are now at 77 seats, one seat less compared to the number of seats they have in Brussels and Strasbourg. The smallest group on the further right is Europe of Sovereign Nations (ESN), who have gained four seats in the projection in the last six months and are now projected at 29 seats.
On the left, The Left in the European Parliament – GUE/NGL (LEFT) made large gains. Projected at 53 seats, they are up by seven seats compared to their election result. To the opposite direction is the development of the Greens/European Free Alliance (G/EFA), who are projected at 36 seats, down from 53, the biggest loss of all groups.
The Non-Inscrits (NI) would be projected at 24 seats, compared to 33 in the actual parliament, and the parties not represented at the moment and not (yet) affiliated are projected to have three seats.
These figures show that, with a 95% confidence interval, the first three places are secure at the moment for EPP, S&D and PfE. The fourth place is a close between RE and ECR, while LEFT seems clearly sixth. Behind that, G/EFA and ESN are roughly similar in size with the NI.
The changes of the last six months are based on many small changes in individual national parties, but some changes are bigger.
The gains of the right-wing PfE group are mainly because of their members in Czechia and the Netherlands. ANO 2011 is up by three seats and Partij voor de Vrijheid is up by five, respectively. Together that amounts for half of the growth of the group.
A big share of the gains of the LEFT group are also from two parties: French La France Insoumise and Italian Movimento 5 Stelle each gained three seats compared to six months ago. On the other hand, the green G/EFA groups losses can be attributed to the two members from the same countries losing representation: Les Écologistes (France) had previously five seats and Europa Verde (Italy) had three.
For the two biggest groups there were not many changes, but both have parties that made some noticeable gains: the centre-right EPP’s Portuguese member Partido Social Democrata is up by three seats, the same as the centre-left S&D’s Swedish member Sveriges Socialdemokratiska Arbetareparti.
The smaller groups on the right have also each one party with bigger gains: Italian ECR member Fratelli d’Italia is up by three seats and German ESN member Alternative für Deutschland is up by five.
The centrist-liberal RE group has two parties behind their gains, Romanian USR is up by three seats, while French Renaissance is the biggest individual winner of the last half-a-year, bringing their projected seats up to 15.
The projection of the popular vote also changed between the election in June and now.
The European People’s Party is the biggest party, with a projected vote share of 23.7%, 0.3 percentage points up since then. They are followed by the Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats at 18.1% (+0.6). Renew Europe gained one percentage point in this period and is now at 10.2%. Together, the three groups that support the new European Commission hold an absolute majority of 52%.
On the right of the political spectrum, all three groups gained in the last six months: Patriots for Europe make the biggest gain of 1.8 percentage points to 11.1%, the European Conservatives and Reformists are up by 0.4 to 10.4% and Europe of Sovereign Nations is at 5.2% (+0.5).
The Left in the European Parliament – GUE/NGL made a gain of 0.4 percentage points to 8.7% while the Greens/European Free Alliance lost 0.9 percentage points to 6.5%.
Non-Inscrits have a smaller share now at 3.6% (−0.8) and those who have not (yet) joined a political group are down to 2.5% (−0.2).
Details of this methodology are explained on our European Parliament projection site, where you can also find a detailed overview and explanation of the methodology behind the monthly projection, including information on why there are sometimes different developments in the popular vote share and the seat projection.
