Europe Elects’ European Parliament projection offers an indication of how voters in the European Union would vote should there be an EU Parliament election today and how this outlook changes on a monthly basis.
Summer is here — time to take the (political) temperature across the European Union.
The largest group after the 2024 elections remains the largest group in the seat projection for June 2025. The centre-right European People’s Party (EPP) currently has 188 seats in the European Parliament and would get 183 seats based on the latest projection. After hitting a record low of 174 seats in February 2025, the group has seen better projections every month since.
Second are the centre-left Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats (S&D), who, according to the latest projection, would see their seat total fall from 136 seats 130. After a projected high of 141 seats in September 2024, the group has remained between 130 and 132 seats since the start of 2025.
The third largest group is the right-wing Patriots for Europe (PfE), which currently holds 85 seats in parliament. The latest seat projection has them reaching 96 seats. While still an increase from their 2024 election results, PfE has been on a downward trend since the start of the year, when projections had the group winning 104 seats.
The fourth biggest group is the national-conservative European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR). Since the start of 2025, projections have maintained the ECR earning 81 seats — a 3-seat increase from their 2024 results.
Renew Europe (RE), the centrist-liberal group, was down to fifth place after the election with 77 seats; now it is projected to have 78 seats. The group has remained relatively consistent within a narrow range. The projection last August had the group falling to a low of 72 seats, while the beginning of this year saw the group winning up to 85 seats.
The biggest gains during the last year were made by The Left in the European Parliament – GUE/NGL (LEFT). With 45 seats, the group exited last June’s EU elections as the seventh largest parliamentary faction. They are now projected to win 58 seats. The group has had gains in the projection nearly every month since the election, but has stagnated the last three months.
The Greens/European Free Alliance (G/EFA) won 53 seats in the election last year, but are now projected to shrink by 27 to just 36 seats — the largest loss of any group. This has been the case for the G/EFA since October of last year, although they have seen some minor variation in the loss total. Since then, the values have been rather stable.
The smallest group, far-right Europe of Sovereign Nations (ESN), has 27 seats in the European Parliament right now and is projected to have 35 seats if there were an election this month. The group had no change in the last month.
Within the European Parliament, there are currently 30 Non-Inscrits (NI) — those who do not belong to any of the formal political groups. In the newest projection, this falls to 21 seats. In addition to the above, two seats would go to a party not (yet) affiliated with any group.
These figures show that, with a 95% confidence interval, the first three places would not change if the election were held tomorrow instead of last year. The fourth place is close between RE and ECR, similar to 2024 when the groups were only separated by one seat. The LEFT is now clearly in sixth instead of seventh, while G/EFA and ESN could both end up being the smallest groups
The groups in the European Parliament have also changed in their composition of national parties during the year. The following carousel provides an overview of the largest party in each group, which member parties would gain representation if the election were held now instead of last year, and which parties would no longer have any seats. Furthermore, it shows all parties that gained or lost more than one seat compared to the actual composition.
The seat projection per country offers a detailed look at the parties that represent each member state.
Besides the seat projection, there is also a projection on the popular vote across the European Union.
As with the seat projections, the European People’s Party remains the largest group. In the 2024 election, the EPP received 23.3% of the vote, and current projections have them falling slightly to 22.4%. The Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats follows with 17.2% — a decrease of 0.3 percentage points compared to the election last year.
Behind the two biggest alliances are four groups that are close together and make gains of various sizes: the national-conservative ECR is at 11% (+1.1), followed by the right-wing PfE at 10.8% (+1.4 points), the left-wing LEFT at 10.4% (+2.1.) and the liberal RE at 9.9% (+0.7).
The green G/EFA sees little to no change at 6.6% (−0.7), while the far-right ESN at 6.4% (+1.7) is projected to have the second most significant increase of any group.
The Non-Inscrits have a share of 3.4% in the projection for June 2025, down from 4.4% and those who have not (yet) joined a political group are down to 1.8% (−4.2).
Details of this methodology are explained on our European Parliament projection site, where you can also find a detailed overview and explanation of the methodology behind the monthly projection, including information on why there are sometimes different developments in the popular vote share and the seat projection.
