In Serbia, student-led anti-corruption protests have grown into calls for snap elections. Will they get them?
Beginnings
On 1 November 2024, the canopy of the Novi Sad railway station collapsed, killing 14 people instantly. The government declared a nationwide day of mourning for 2 November, and protests against how government negligence and corruption may have contributed to the disaster began soon after.
Initially organised by the opposition, these gatherings were quickly complemented by vigils initiated by students of the Faculty of Dramatic Arts at the University of Belgrade in front of their faculty.
On 22 November, a group — which allegedly included multiple activists and elected officials affiliated with the ruling Serbian Progressive Party (SNS-EPP) — attacked Faculty of Dramatic Arts students. In response, students began an occupation (also referred to as a “blockade”) of their school. Others soon followed suit, and by mid-December, all faculties at the University of Belgrade, the University of Novi Sad, the University of Niš, and the University of Kragujevac, as well as other higher education institutions, were occupied by students. All classes were cancelled indefinitely while students rallied around four demands:
- Publication of all documentation regarding the reconstruction of the Novi Sad railway station
- The identities of all persons suspected of physically attacking students and professors, as well as the initiation of criminal proceedings against them and, if they are found to be public officials, their dismissal
- Dismissal of criminal charges against students arrested and detained during protests, as well as suspension of any criminal proceedings already initiated,
- An increase in the budget for higher education by 20%.
Since then, students and their supporters have held numerous massive protests, including one on 22 December in Belgrade’s Slavija Square that was attended by around 100,000 people — roughly 1.5% of the entire country’s population. On 15 March, at least 300,000 demonstrators — or approximately 1 in every 22 Serbian resident — converged in Belgrade.
Following that protest, the students expanded their demands to include a snap parliamentary election.
That demand, specifically, has become the key goal of the movement as students now see elections as the only way out of the crisis.
Will the SNS Call An Election?
Ultimately, the responsibility to call a snap parliamentary election lies with the President of Serbia, Aleksandar Vučić (SNS-EPP), and it is unlikely that he will agree to do so. He has previously rejected calls for an early election, instead stating that it would most likely be held in early 2027, concurrently with the presidential election.
Since 2012, only one parliamentary election has been held on schedule. The SNS has used snap elections as a way to increase their share of the National Assembly. After the 2014 early election, the SNS doubled their seats, while in 2020, amidst an election boycott, they won 188 out of 250 MPs.
Key to the SNS’s snap election strategy is a peaceful, predictable, and politically demobilised environment. In 2023, for example, large anti-government protests were held after a series of mass shootings in Belgrade. Only once the protests started to fade out and the number of demonstrators decreased dramatically did the SNS opt to call a snap parliamentary election.
Other reasons why a snap parliamentary election is unlikely involve a trio of real estate and urban development projects — EXPO 2027, the Belgrade Waterfront, and the Trump Tower Belgrade.
All three involve large — and potentially lucrative — redevelopments crucial to SNS and Vučić for their political legitimacy and economic symbolism. They have also been the target of consistent public criticism and allegations of corruption.
A snap parliamentary election, especially one in which students or the opposition might win, could mark the end of these projects.
Opinion Polling
Despite the considerable public support for students, which according to the non-governmental organisation Centre for Research, Transparency and Accountability, hovers around 60%, an SNS victory in a potential snap parliamentary election should not be ruled out.
Since 2012, the SNS has won every Serbian parliamentary election — usually with a majority of seats and close to 50% of the popular vote each time.
The opposition, in comparison, remains weak. They face a hostile pro-government media environment and are often riven by infighting. Even when they form a united front, like in the 2020 and 2023 parliamentary elections, the opposition has failed to present themselves as a better alternative to the SNS.
Serbian elections also remain flawed, and no progress has been made in resolving the issues highlighted by the OSCE’s Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights after the 2023 snap election.
In previous campaigns, the SNS has abused public funds, engaged in vote buying, and intimidated opposition voters. Pro-SNS channels and newspapers dominate the media, while the Republic Electoral Commission often ignores election complaints from citizens.
On top of that, opinion polling has shown that the SNS does actually remain broadly popular. It is the largest political party, and there has been very little data suggesting that the party would lose that status.
The student-led protests have begun, however, to shift public opinion and potentially signal that the SNS could lose its current parliamentary majority — even if it remains the largest party. New Serbian Political Thought has published several opinion polls, which indicate that a hypothetical political alliance aligned with the students could potentially oust the SNS from power.
A May 2025 NSPM poll projected that an “opposition and students list” would win 57% of the popular vote, while the SNS, SPS, and their allies would win 43% in a hypothetical parliamentary election.
In late June 2025, NSPM published another opinion poll featuring SNS, SPS, a potential student list, and opposition parties. In this poll, SNS won only 35% of the popular vote, while the broader governing coalition earned just 41% — a 2% decrease since May.
While this represents a significant shift, given that SNS secured 48% of the popular vote in the 2023 parliamentary election, it still means that a hypothetical student list would only win 20% of the popular vote.
It should also be noted that NSPM have underestimated SNS in the 2023 parliamentary election. In the last three polls published in 2023, they had SNS between 38% and 39%, while overestimating the support for the opposition parties.
There are no signs of protests stopping, and at some point, a parliamentary election will have to be held. For SNS, the best time will probably be in 2027. For the students, it might have already passed.
1 Comment
VERY INTERESTING! THANK YOU FOR THIS ANALYSIS!