The next elections to the European Parliament will be held 23–26 May 2019. This page displays the latest polls and projections for all countries in the European Union. The first official preliminary election results will be published Sunday night. Before this, we will live-update our projection with polls, exit polls, initial results and official projections.
Approximately 403,365,851 EU citizens are eligible to vote in this year’s European election, while this number is updated by the hour on our website, some electoral commissions only release the number of eligible voters only after all votes are counted.
European Parliament Seat Projection
This is our projection for the new European Parliament. The results are based on the proejctions of the BBC, the European Parliament website, and on our research on the future group affiliation of “new” parties entering the European Parliament
Largest party per country – Group affiliation
European Parliament Seat Projection Timeline
The following chart tracks the changes in how the European Parliament would have looked like in the different times displayed if an election would have been held.
The right-wing ENF group was created in June 2015 and the respective parties separated from the Non-Inscrits in the European Parliament. In March 2019, ENF announced that it would transform with other EFDD and ECR parties into EAPN. Until May 2017 the parties with no affiliation to any group in the European Parliament are labelled automatically as part of the NI group but are afterwards presented separately. In April 2017 the French party REM was moved from Non-Inscrits to ALDE. The United Kingdom was excluded from the projection from April 2017 until March 2019. The months of Jul-14, Sep-14, Nov-14, Jan-15, Mar-15, Jun-15, Aug-15, May-17, Jun-17, Aug-17, Oct-17, Dec-17, and Feb-18 have been taken with kind permission from the seat projections on Manuel Müller’s blog “Der (europäische) Föderalist”. For more information visit www.foederalist.eu/europawahl-umfragen.
Projected Seats by Country and European Parliament group
This heat map shows how many seats each group has in the new European Parliament from the different EU member states.
The seats by country are median values, and as such do not add up to our projection values or to 705
What will the next Commission majority look like?
Probability Distribution of European Parliament Seats (March 2019)
(will be updated with our next projection in July 2019)
Opinion polls and probability models based on opinion polls need to take error into consideration. If a party receives 5% in an opinion poll in an electoral system with a five-percent threshold, the probability that the party makes it into parliament is 50 percent. We take this error into consideration by presenting the results of our mass probability model for the European election also as probability space.
Support for European Parliamentary groups around Europe
National parties are affiliated with Groups in the European Parliament. The following heat map shows the strength of the different national parties sorted according to their group affiliation. The values are based on the latest polls available. The results exclude undecided voters, voters who did not know who to vote for and voters who refused to answer the questions of the pollster.
In each constituency Europe Elects considers polls published with a sample size in the previous 90 days, using only the latest poll published by each firm. Polls asking directly about the European Election are preferred, but since those are rare and national polls are plentiful, the latter are often used. Should no polls be available, as in the case of the German-speaking community in Belgium, the 2014 election results are used.
National polls are projeted onto constituencies using multiplicative uniform regional swing, where the proportional swing is calculated and multiplied by the last constituency result. For example a party that won 22% of the national vote and 15% in a certain constituency in 2014 and is now polling at 24% nationally would have their previous local 15% multiplied by 24/22 = 1.1, modeling a 2019 result in the constituency of 16.5%. For new parties their poll numbers are assumed to be uniform in all constituencies.
The constituency results are calculated probabilistically for each poll included in the projection using the correct local electoral law, a factor that is unique to the Europe Elects model, using weighted Monte Carlo simulations, essentially simulating the election many times over and over again to achieve the probability distribution of the results. The results for each constituency are combined by averaging the probability mass functions (those graphs above that look like a bell curve) calculated for each poll.
These result are then combined into a single European result by convolving the probability mass functions of the parties in each European Parliament group, for example calculating for S&D the probability that the PD will get x number of seats plus Labour will get y seats plus Spanish PSOE will get z seats and so on for every party in S&D; the same is done for each group independently.
This method leaves us with separate bell curves each one of which we take the median result from as the predicted number of seats for the EP group. The sum of the medians will not add up to 751, one more step is required for that, but it will be close to it.
The reason for the medians not adding up to the total seats can be understood imagining 3 parties competing for a single seat in one constituency, each one having equal probability of winning. The probability mass function for each party will show it with a 1/3 probability of winning one seat and a 2/3 probability of netting 0 seats. The median result will therefore be 0 for all three, with a confidence interval of 0-1. The sum of the medians 0+0+0 = 0 not 1, yet the result is probabilistically correct.
The median result for each EP group is normalized to the total of 751, making up for all the cases like the one described above by distributing the missing seats proportionally.
The grouping of the parties in the European Parliament is done by the team members of Europe Elects. Parties already represented in the European Parliament are kept in their current group. For new parties or parties that aren’t represented yet, we keep a close eye on (and often communicate with) relevant national parties to assess which group in the European Parliament they will join. Hence, our projection is unique in that it aligns these new parties with the existing families, rather than as an amorphous “new parties” group.