Europe Elects produces a monthly projection on how voters in the European Union would vote, should there be an EU Parliament election today. When comparing seats and popular vote projected to the election result in this article, we contrast them to the EU27 scenario—meaning we exclude the United Kingdom.
Our projection for the development of polling trends in June 2020 shows that the centre-right EPP Group in the European Parliament would remain the largest bloc in the assembly if there was an EU Parliament election today, with 198 seats out of 705 post-Brexit and a popular vote share of 25.7%. In the EU election in May 2019—discounting the United Kingdom and adding the post-Brexit MEPs around the EU—the EPP finished with 187 of seats and a popular vote share of 22.6%. Relative to the overall number of seats in the parliament, the level of support for centre-right parties in Europe is the highest since early 2015. In the past thirty days, the uptick of EPP was also driven by the Romanian PMP, which would now get three seats compared with none in the previous month.
The centre-left S&D would come second with 133 out of 705 seats and 17.9% of the popular vote. This would be 15 seats and 1.0 percentage points less in the popular vote than in the 2019 election—again discounting the UK and adding the post-Brexit MEPs. The S&D Group hosts Socialist and Social Democratic parties like the German SPD and the Swedish Social Democrats (S) in the EU Parliament from across the continent. The centre-left decline manifests itself this month in Poland, where Lewica (S&D) drops by two projected seats compared with the previous month. This comes after an unsuccessful Presidential election campaign for which Lewica nominated Robert Biedron, who received only 2.2% of the vote.
Europe Elects’ projection of seats of European Parliament in June 2020
Trailing the two frontrunner groups by some margin, the third biggest European Parliamentary group in our June’s projection is the liberal RE Group with 97 seats, which is exactly what the group achieved in the 2019 EU election sans the UK. In terms of vote shares, the RE Group receives 11.6% in our projection. That is 0.7 percentage points less than in the EU election last year. The RE Group hosts political parties such as the French LREM and the German FDP.
The right-wing ID Group in the European Parliament is projected to get 77 out of 705 seats, a vote share of 10.9% and be the fourth largest European Parliamentary group if there was an EU election today. This is one seat more and 0.3 percentage points less than in the EU election minus the UK and adding the post-Brexit MEPs. The result is significant as it is the worst projected result for the European right-wing since the EU election 2019.
The ECR Group is projected to get 71 seats should an EU election be held now. The group—which amongst others includes the Polish PiS and the Italian Fratelli d’Italia (FdI)—received 62 seats in the pre-Brexit 2019 EU election, discounting the UK and distributing the post-Brexit MEPs. Across the EU, the national parties affiliated with the ECR Group have a combined EU popular vote share of 9.5% in June, which is 1.4 points above ECR’s 2019 election result.
Europe Elects’ projection of popular vote in the EU in June 2020
The left-wing GUE/NGL is projected to be the sixth-largest bloc in the European Parliament, should there be an election today, rather clearly behind the five biggest groups. Europe Elects’ June projection predicts the group would receive 54 out of 705 seats, up from 40 in the EU election 2019 sans the UK. In the popular vote projection, the group stands at 8.3%, up from 7.0% in the 2019 election.
Greens/EFA was the fifth-largest parliamentary group in the European election in May 2019 without the UK but has since slid to the seventh position. In terms of seats, Greens/EFA decreased from 68 seats and 11.5% in the election night to only 48 MEPs and 7.4% in Europe Elects’ June projection. This is a significant result because—for the first time since the 2019 EU election—Greens/EFA gains projected MEPs compared to the previous month. Perhaps the steady decline has reached its nadir.
The Non-Inscrits—those parties left without a parliamentary group in the European Parliament—would send 24 MEPs with a 4.1% vote share in the popular vote to the European Parliament in June’s projection.
Disproportionate or sometimes opposite developments in the popular vote share and the seat projection can be explained with the slight disproportionality of the electoral system for the European Parliament.
The data presented in this article are based on 30 June 2020. The reason for the delayed publication was the holiday schedule of our volunteers involved in the monthly projection for the EU Parliament.
Visit our European Parliament projection site for a more in-depth overview and the methodology behind the monthly projection.