Europe Elects’ European Parliament projection offers an indication of how voters in the European Union would vote should there be an EU Parliament election today and how this outlook changes on a monthly basis.
The 2024 European Parliament election took place one year ago. Now is a good time to look at the changes that have in the meantime. Most importantly, what would the parliament look like if the elections were held today?
The largest group after the election is also the largest group in the seat projection for May 2025: the centre-right European People’s Party (EPP). They have 188 seats in the European Parliament and would get 182 seats based on the latest projection. This was after they had their lowest number of seats (174) in February 2025, and the group has been projected more seats every month since then.
Second are the centre-left Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats (S&D), who went from 136 seats at the election to 132 now, according to the latest projection. After a high of 141 seats in September last year, the group has stayed at between 130 and 132 seats since the start of 2025.
The third biggest group is the right-wing Patriots for Europe (PfE), who have 85 seats in the parliament right now, but reach 96 seats in the latest seat projection. They have won 11 more seats, but there has been a downward trend since the start of the year when they were projected with 104 seats.
Renew Europe (RE), the centrist-liberal group, were down to fifth place after the election with 77 seats. One year later are projected at 82 seats, up in fourth place. This is after being down to 72 seats last August and up to 85 seats in the beginning of this year.
Close in size to them are the national-conservative European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) that came in fourth in the European election and are now the fifth biggest group. After having 78 seats at inauguration they are now projected at 77 seats. Over the year they had been projected between 76 and 82 seats.
The biggest gains during the last year made The Left in the European Parliament – GUE/NGL (LEFT). Being the seventh biggest group last June with 45 seats they are now projected at 58 seats. The group has had gains in the projection nearly every month, pointing to an upward trend.
The smallest group on the right, far-right Europe of Sovereign Nations (ESN), has 27 seats in the European Parliament right now and is projected to have 35 seats if there was an election this month. The group had steady gains in the beginning of 2025 and reached their highest point last month with 37 seats.
The smallest group overall in the projection are the Greens/European Free Alliance (G/EFA) who were sixth in the election. They reached 53 seats back then and are now projected at only 34, the biggest loss of all groups. Most of the decrease happened by October of last year, at which time they were already at 34 seats. Since then the values have been stable.
There are at the moment 30 Non-Inscrits (NI) in the European Parliament, meaning those who do not belong to any of the formal political groups. In the newest projection, this would be down to 23 seats. In addition to the above, one seat would go to a party not (yet) affiliated to any group.
These figures show that, with a 95% confidence interval, that the first three places would not change if the election was held tomorrow instead of last year. The fourth place is close between RE and ECR, similar to 2024 when the groups were only separated by one seat. The LEFT is now clearly in sixth instead of seventh, while G/EFA and ESN could both end up being the smallest groups
The groups in the European Parliament have also changed in their composition of national parties during the year. The following carousel gives an overview of the biggest party in each group, which member parties would gain representation if the election was now instead of last year, and which parties would not have any seats any more. Furthermore, it shows all parties that gained or lost more than one seat compared to the actual composition.
The seat projection per country offers a detailed look on the parties that represent each member state.
Besides the seat projection, there is also a projection on the popular vote across the European Union.
Also here, the European People’s Party was the biggest group in the election with 23.3%, now they are at 22.2%, which is still enough to stay in first place. The Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats at 17.7%, follows with a plus of 0.2 percentage points compared to last year.
Behind the two biggest groups are four groups that are close together and made gains of various sizes: right-wing PfE is at 10.7% (+1.3 points), followed by national-conservative ECR at 10.6% (+0.7), liberal RE at 10.4% (+1.2) and left-wing LEFT at 10.2% (+1.9).
The two smallest groups in the parliament have also similar numbers: far-right ESN is at 6.4% (+1.7) and green G/EFA is at 6.3% (−1)
The Non-Inscrits have a share of 3.3% in the projection fro May 2025, down from 4.4% and those who have not (yet) joined a political group are down to 2.2% (−3.8).
Details of this methodology are explained on our European Parliament projection site, where you can also find a detailed overview and explanation of the methodology behind the monthly projection, including information on why there are sometimes different developments in the popular vote share and the seat projection.
