Europe Elects’ European Parliament projection offers an indication of how voters in the European Union would vote should there be an EU Parliament election today and how this outlook changes on a monthly basis.
The end of the summer is coming closer – let’s see what picture the polling gives at the moment of the European Union.
After a steady decrease since last August, the centre-right European People’s Party (EPP) has seen its seat projections stabilise, although projections remain lower than the party’s current representation. For the second consecutive month, latest projections have the EPP garnering 180 seats. This is, however, down from 183 seats at the beginning of the summer and from the current 188 seats the EPP holds in the European Parliament. The group remains the largest in every projection.
The centre-left Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats (S&D), according to the latest projection, would see their seat total fall from 136 seats to 125. This drop continues the trend of small losses over the last five months.
The third largest group, the right-wing Patriots for Europe (PfE), currently holds 85 seats in parliament. The latest seat projection has them increasing to 98 seats. While, this would represent a double-digit increase in their seat total, it is still lower than their projected high of 104 seats from this previous winter.
The fourth biggest group is the national-conservative European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR). Compared to the seats they currently hold in the European Parliament, they are projected to gain four seats, bringing their total to 83.
Renew Europe (RE), the centrist-liberal group, fell to fifth place after the 2024 election and now has 75 seats in the Parliament. The August projection has them at 76 seats. The group’s projected seat total has remained relatively consistent over the last 12 months, falling between 72 and 85 seats.
The largest projected gains were made by The Left in the European Parliament – GUE/NGL (LEFT). They are now projected to win 60 seats — 14 more than their current parliamentary faction. Relative to its 2024 performance, the group has gained in every monthly projection since the election.
The Greens/European Free Alliance (G/EFA) are now projected to lose around a third of their 53 seats and are now hovering at just 38 seats — the largest loss of any group. However, they are on an upward trend and are up five seats since their lowest projection in March.
The smallest group, the far-right Europe of Sovereign Nations (ESN), currently has 27 seats and is projected to increase that to 37, the same value that they had this April, which was also their highest projection so far.
Within the European Parliament, there are currently 31 Non-Inscrits (NI) — those who do not belong to any of the formal political groups. In the newest projection, this falls to 21 seats. In addition to the above, two seats would go to a party not (yet) affiliated with any group. These numbers have been stable for three months.
With a 95% confidence interval, the August projection says that the order of the first three places would not change if the election were held tomorrow. Fourth place is currently being contested between RE and ECR while the LEFT is now clearly in sixth instead of seventh place. Lastly, either the G/EFA or the ESN could end up being the smallest groups
The composition of the European Parliamentary groups has also changed over the past year. The following carousel provides an overview of the largest party in each group, which member parties would gain representation if the election were held now, and which parties would no longer have any seats. Furthermore, it shows all parties that gained or lost more than one seat compared to the actual composition.
The seat projection per country offers a detailed look at the parties that represent each member state.
Besides the seat projection, there is also a projection on the popular vote across the European Union.
As with the seat projections, the European People’s Party remains the largest group despite a small overall decline. In the 2024 election, the EPP received 23.3% of the vote, and current projections have them falling to 22.2%. The Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats follows with 16.7% — a decrease of 0.8 percentage points compared to 2024.
The next four groups are close together and make gains of various sizes: the national-conservative ECR is at 11.2% (+1.3), followed by the right-wing PfE at 11.1% (+1.7 points), the left-wing LEFT at 10.3% (+2), and the liberal RE at 10% (+0.8). The order of these parties has remained unchanged over the last three months.
With 6.7%, the far-right ESN is projected up by two percentage points since the election, while the green G/EFA is down a bit and are at 6.6% (−0.7).
The Non-Inscrits have a share of 2.9% in the projection for August 2025, down from 4.4% and those who have not (yet) joined a political group are down to 2.2% (−3.8).
Details of this methodology are explained on our European Parliament projection site, where you can also find a detailed overview and explanation of the methodology behind the monthly projection, including information on why there are sometimes different developments in the popular vote share and the seat projection.
