Presidential election in France 2027

The Varieties of Democracy project classifies France as a liberal democracy, meaning that elections are generally free and fair.

France’s presidential election in 2027 willl directly affect representation in the European Council, as the country is represented there by its president. Nevertheless, the campaign is expected to focus overwhelmingly on domestic issues. While some candidates explain how their programmes fit within the opportunities and constraints of EU membership, the election is not primarily about leadership at the European level.

The twelfth presidential election of the Fifth Republic will elect France’s ninth president. For the first time in French history, the incumbent is constitutionally barred from seeking another term as it is the first election in which the two-term limit introduced by the 2008 constitutional reform applies.

Emmanuel Macron’s departure leaves a significant vacuum. He has not yet succeeded in shaping the choice of his successor within his own party, affiliated with the liberal-centrist Renew Europe. As shown in the candidate overview below, several”macronist” candidates are competing to replace him, including some of his former prime ministers, including Édouard Philippe of the liberal Horizons party. Philippe is widely regarded as one of the early favourite, with centrist candidates generally seen as well positioned to prevail in a second-round run-off because they can attract moderate votes from across the spectrum.

Another historic element is the development of two-time runner-up and long-time frontrunner Marine Le Pen. The leader of the right-wing Patriots for Europe-affiliated Rassemblement National (RN) was previously barred from holding public office after she and her party were convicted of embezzling European Parliament funds through a fake jobs scheme. Although the Court of Appeal subsequently reduced her ban to 15 months, she faced further hurdles due to being subjected to electronic tagging—a condition she had previously stated would prevent her from campaigning. However, Le Pen has since announced that she was filing another appeal with the Cour de Cassation and remained a candidate.

On the left, Jean-Luc Mélenchon will partake in a fourth consecutive presidential election. He will seek to upset expectations of a second-round contest between the radical right and the macronist camp. Mélenchon has repeatedly finished campaigns strongly by mobilising left-wing voters. Although La France Insoumise, which belongs to The Left in the European Parliament, initially signalled that it would present a new presidential candidate, it ultimately failed, or chose not, to develop an alternative leader.

Meanwhile, the traditional centre-right and centre-left parties continue to struggle to undo the tripartite division of political life, which has been harming their electoral prospects. Both are also divided over the question of presidential primaries. The Les Républicains (LR) party, affiliated with Ursula von der Leyen’s European People’s Party (EPP), voted to nominate their party president, Bruno Retailleau, for candidate. But our candidate overview below shows that not all centre-right candidates have accepted this process. The Parti socialiste (PS), affiliated with the Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats (S&D) family at the European level, is even more divided. Party president Olivier Faure is at the iniative of a left-of-centre primary (“Primaire de la gauche unitaire”) comprising Les Écologistes (Greens/EFA Group), LFI dissidents and other left-of-centre parties. Yet, internal opponents favour rallying behind Raphaël Glucksmann of the centre-left Place Publique party affiliated with the Socialists and Democrats (S&D), holding a Socialist-only primary, or launching separate candidacies altogether.

Early polls suggest that the threshold for reaching the second round may be low. While Mélenchon failed to qualify in 2022 with 21.95% of the vote, the current second-place candidate in the polls is often projected to receive just over 15%.

And in previous elections, a lot of lesser-known candidates are also expected to enter the race. However, many will ultimately fail to gather the 500 endorsements from elected officials required to appear on the ballot.