//‘Boris Bounce’ in European Parliament Projection

‘Boris Bounce’ in European Parliament Projection

The election of Boris Johnson as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom has benefited his Conservative Party in the polls. The party is organized in the national-conservative European Conservatives and Reformists group (ECR) in the European Parliament, which also hosts the Polish government party Law and Justice Party (PiS). The rise of the British Conservatives and continued high levels of support for PiS has improved the standing of the national-conservative ECR group in the Europe Elects European Parliament projection. The August 31 projection shows 85 seats for the ECR if there was a European Parliament election today. This is 23 seats more than what ECR achieved in the European election this May. If there was an election today, ECR would consequently be the fourth largest group in the EU Parliament.

The centre-right European People’s Party group (EPP) of the new incoming Commission President Ursula von der Leyen would achieve 166 out of 751 seats in the EU Parliament if there was an election today. This is 16 seats fewer than in May, but the group would maintain its position as the most popular force in the EU Parliament. The centre-left Socialists & Democrats group (S&D) of the newly elected S&D group President Iratxe García comes second and secures 154 seats in the August 31 projection, just like in the May election.

The liberals and the right-wing continue to be on the winning side: the liberal Renew Europe Group (RE) would increase their number of seats from 108 to 116. The right-wing Identity & Democracy Group (ID) could profit also, rising from 73 to 80 seats. RE and ID had previously achieved strong election results in the 2019 EU election, increasing their seat share compared to the 2014-2019 Parliament.

The Greens/European Free Alliance group (G/EFA) also had a strong election result in the 2014 election, but support has been declining since the election. If there were an EU election today, the Greens and their allies would decline from 75 to 64 seats, dropping from the fourth to the sixth position.

The left-wing European United Left-Nordic Green Left Group (GUE/NGL) would increase its number of seats from 41 to 47 seats. The Non-Inscrits, which are largely made up of the British Brexit Party and the Italian government party M5S (“Five Star Movement”), would win 32 seats if there was an election today. In the 2019 election, Non-Inscrits achieved 57 seats. 

Three seats out of the 751 seats would currently go to parties which are not represented in the EU Parliament yet and have no affiliation with any of the EU Parliament groups or the Non-Inscrits.

In the popular vote recorded in July, the centre-right EPP reaches 19.4% (-1.6 compared to the EU election 2019) of the vote, the centre-left S&D group remains just a few points behind this with 19% (-0.5). The gap is significantly smaller than in the 2019 EU election in May. The liberal RE Group would secure 12.8% (-0.2) of EU votes, ahead of the right-wing ID Group, whose national parties have currently a total support of 11.5% (+0.7). The Greens/EFA Group declines to an accumulated popular vote of 9.4% (-2.3), which is only 0.1 point ahead of the national-conservative ECR Group (+1.1). The left-wing GUE/NGL Group reaches 6.6% of the popular vote (+0.1).

Tobias Gerhard Schminke (@TobiasSchminke) leads Europe Elects. He founded Europe Elects in May 2014, and until September 2017 ran the account on his own. He obtained a Bachelor of Arts in Media and Communication Science with a Political Science minor at the Johannes Gutenberg University in Mainz, Germany, and Haifa University, Israel. He is currently working towards his Master of Arts in International Development Studies in Halifax, Canada.